Indian Seafood Export: Trends, Forecast and Market Stability Analysis

Anantharaju, Vinay and Kumar, Rajan and Rahangdale, Shikha and Naveen Kumar, B T and Abdul Azeez, P and Kranthi Kumar, Dhandi (2016) Indian Seafood Export: Trends, Forecast and Market Stability Analysis. Indian Journal of Ecology, 43. pp. 793-796.

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    In India, the seafood export gradually increased from a mere earning of Rs. 3.98 crores in 1961-62 to Rs. 30213.26 crores in 2013-14 and in terms of quantity the export increased from mere 15732 tonnes to staggering 9.83 lakh tonnes in the same period. Three-year moving average for export and production shows increasing trend with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 between them. Lowest CGR was observed for the decade 1981-1990 (2.50% for quantity and 4.76% for value) whereas for the rest of the decades the figures were higher than 3.0 % for quantity and 5.0% for value. Using Markov chain approachit was observed that Japan was the most stable market among the major importers of Indian Seafood as reflected by the probability of retention at 86.36 % and the most unstable markets was the Middle East with the 40 % retention.The forecast for the marine product export for 2020 was found to be 13.82 lakh tonnes using Holt method.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Compound growth rate (CGR), Holt method, Markov chain approach, Seafood export
    Subjects: Fishery Technology > Sea Food
    Divisions: CMFRI-Veraval
    Depositing User: Arun Surendran
    Date Deposited: 03 Jul 2019 06:16
    Last Modified: 03 Jul 2019 06:16

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