Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift

Prasanna Kumar, S and Roshin, P Raj and Narvekar, Jayu and Dinesh Kumar, P K and Vivekanandan, E (2009) Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift. Marine Environmental Research, 68 (5). pp. 217-222.

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Abstract

The response of the Arabian Sea to global warming is the disruption in the natural decadal cycle in the sea surface temperature (SST) after 1995, followed by a secular warming. The Arabian Sea is experiencing a regional climate-shift after 1995, which is accompanied by a five fold increase in the occurrence of “most intense cyclones”. Signatures of this climate-shift are also perceptible over the adjacent landmass of India as: (1) progressively warmer winters, and (2) decreased decadal monsoon rainfall. The warmer winters are associated with a 16-fold decrease in the decadal wheat production after 1995, while the decreased decadal rainfall was accompanied by a decline of vegetation cover and increased occurrence of heat spells. We propose that in addition to the oceanic thermal inertia, the upwelling-driven cooling provided a mechanism that offset the CO2-driven SST increase in the Arabian Sea until 1995.

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