Integrated examination of oceanographic features and habitat modeling for dolphinfish in the Western Pacific ecosystem: A comprehensive study

Mammel, Mubarak and Matovu, Baker and Beegum, Sajna and Abdul Azeez, P and Lee, Ming-An and Sedanza, Mary Grace and Chiang, Wei-Chuan and Roy, Shovonlal (2026) Integrated examination of oceanographic features and habitat modeling for dolphinfish in the Western Pacific ecosystem: A comprehensive study. Journal of Marine Systems, 257. pp. 1-19. ISSN 0924-7963

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Abstract

We developed a habitat suitability index (HSI) model for predicting the fishery potential and future climate-change-related habitat shifts for dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) in the Western Pacific Ocean. We collected data on oceanographic variables, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), mixed layer depth (MLD), sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration (SSC), sea surface dissolved oxygen (OXG), and eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and fishery data from Taiwanese dolphinfish longline vessels for the 2017–2020 period. With satellite-derived remotely sensed oceanographic data becoming increasingly available, HSI models may prove useful for evaluating potential changes in habitat suitability caused by oceanographic phenomena and for providing scientific advice for management. We initially constructed arithmetic mean model (AMM)- and geometric mean model (GMM)-based HSI models and assessed them according to the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC). We eventually selected the AMM-based model (AIC value: −15.12 for AMM vs. −13.93 for GMM). The suitable SST, SSS, SSH, MLD, SSC, OXG, and EKE ranges for dolphinfish habitats were 26 °C–29.5 °C, 34–34.4 PSU, 0.43–0.84 m, 6–26 m, 0.08–0.32 mg m−3, 200–212 mmol m−3, and 0.09–0.7 m2 s−2, respectively. Temporal habitat persistence analysis revealed consistently high suitability zones closely aligned with observed standardized catch per unit effort (SCPUE) trends, confirming the model's utility as a proxy for fishing opportunity. Mid-century (2050) projections revealed that suitable dolphinfish habitats shifted southward under future climate scenarios, with the most pronounced shift occurring under the lower-emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. However, late-century (2100) projections indicated a northward shift in suitable habitats, particularly under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario. These shifts highlight the need for climate-resilient, adaptive fishery management strategies that can inform future conservation efforts and facilitate habitat management for enhanced ecological monitoring.

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