Thompson & Bell prediction model

Kizhakudan, Shoba Joe (2017) Thompson & Bell prediction model. In: Course Manual Summer School on Advanced Methods for Fish Stock Assessment and Fisheries Management. Lecture Note Series No. 2/2017 . CMFRI; Kochi, Kochi, pp. 221-227.

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Abstract

Prediction or predictive models predict the effect of different levels of fishing effort on the fish stocks in the future. Two prediction models that are widely applied are Thompson and Bell (1934) model and the Yield per recruit model developed by Beverton and Holt (1957). These models provide a direct link between fish stock assessment and fishery resource management. The Thompson & Bell Model is a widely used prediction model in assessing the optimum factor for increase or decrease of fishing effort to achieve maximum sustainable and economic yield of a commercially exploited species. This model builds on the output of age (as conceived in the original model) or length-based Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). The equations used for the VPA and cohort analysis can be transformed to predict future yields and biomass at different levels of fishing efforts; i.e., the knowledge of the past fishery can be used to predict the future yields.

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