Long term projection of the marine fish landings along southwest coast of India using Markov chain model

Abstract

The variable nature of biological systems suggests that stochastic models are appropriate for the study of the dynamic changes in space or time. Among this group of models, Markov chain model is popular and widely used. A four state Markov chain model is applied to study the changes in the landings along southwest coast of India. Time series data on marine fish landings along southwest coast of India during 1961 to 2003 are examined by Markov chain model after deriving transition probability matrices. Using these matrices, the estimated steady state value of exploited marine fish landings along southwest coast of India is 6,56,709 tonnes. The projection indicates that there will be decline in the landings in the long run, if the present mode of exploitation is continued.