Spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove vegetation greenness (NDVI) and environmental drivers along the Gujarat coast

Vase, Vinaya Kumar and Sreenath, K R and Twinkle, S and Kumar, Rajan and Rahangdale, Shikha and Jayasankar, J and Vinod, K and Ratheesh Kumar, R and George, Grinson (2026) Spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove vegetation greenness (NDVI) and environmental drivers along the Gujarat coast. Wetlands Ecology and Management, 34 (36). pp. 1-15. ISSN 1572-9834

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Abstract

Mangroves are dense, tidal forests in tropical and subtropical coasts. They store carbon, prevent erosion, and enhance nutrients, so monitoring their changes over space and time is crucial for identifying damage and planning more effective restoration. Advanced remote sensing techniques provide a wide range of spatial and temporal resolutions, offering cost-effectiveness, reduced sampling biases, and the capability for continuous monitoring. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from 2002 to 2020 was used to assess: a) the health conditions of mangroves, b) the temporal and spatial dynamics of mangrove vegetation in Gujarat state, and c) the impact of environmental variables on NDVI values. The annual average NDVI for Gujarat mangroves demonstrated a significant positive trend from 2002 to 2020 (p-value < 0.05; R2 = 0.513). The annual mean NDVI values ranged from 0.288 to 0.368 during this period. Higher NDVI values were recorded in subregions such as the Gulf of Kutch (0.363) and Southern Gujarat (0.345). The NDVI for Gujarat exhibited a positive correlation with sea surface height (R_ssh = 0.762, p-value < 0.05), temperature (R_temp = 0.301, p-value < 0.05), and precipitation (R_prep = 0.201, p-value < 0.05). In contrast, it displayed a negative correlation with sea surface salinity (R_sss = –0.356, p-value < 0.05). Mangrove restoration and conservation efforts in the region have yielded positive results, as evidenced by an overall growth rate; however, NDVI values remain lower compared to global averages, warranting further investigation. Besides industrialization, sea-level rise, and human encroachment, climate variables such as reduced precipitation (short-term, high intensity) and increased sea surface salinity are significant threats to regional mangrove vegetation. The research identified regional and inter-annual trends in mangrove ecosystem health and key environmental variables, providing crucial data for developing management plans, restoration programs, and mitigation strategies.

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